swineflutracker.co.uk

Last updated: 10.00 BST

The government today launched the National Pandemic Flu Service, a new online service that will assess patients for swine flu and, if required, provide an authorisation number that can be used to collect antiviral medication.

The system, which can also be accessed by telephone, is designed to take the strain off GPs as swine flu spreads. For the moment, it is only being used in England.

“The National Pandemic Flu Service is a new self-care service which will give people with pandemic swine flu symptoms fast access to information and antivirals”, said a department of health spokesman.

“This new service will free up GPs, enabling them to deal with other illnesses that need their urgent attention”.

The launch of the new system means important changes to the official advice given to those who think they may have swine flu.

That advice – and the new system itself – is supported by the Royal College of General Practitioners.

 

Latest advice

If you have flu-like symptoms and are concerned that you may have swine flu:

• Stay at home and check your symptoms at the National Pandemic Flu Service
• You should call your GP directly if:
  – you have a serious underlying illness
  – you are pregnant
  – you have a sick child under one year old
  – your condition suddenly gets much worse
  – your condition is still getting worse after seven days (five for a child)

Note: The National Pandemic Flu Service is a new online service that will assess your symptoms and, if required, provide an authorisation number that can be used to collect antiviral medication from a local collection point. For those who do not have internet access, the same service can be accessed by telephone on:

Telephone: 0800 1 513 100
Minicom: 0800 1 513 200

For more information on the National Pandemic Flu Service go to Flu Service – Questions and Answers

People in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should visit www.direct.gov.uk/pandemicflu

 

Latest figures

There were an estimated 100,000 new cases of swine flu in the UK in the week ending July 19. Total deaths stand at 31. More than 800 people with swine flu have died worldwide since the beginning of the pandemic.

At this week’s update on the swine flu situation, Sir Liam Donaldson, Chief Medical Officer, also said:

• There are 840 seriously ill people in hospital with swine flu. Of these, 63 are in intensive care
• Under 14-year-olds continue to be the age group predominantly affected
• The provisional number of deaths in England related to swine flu is 26, and around 16% did not have any underlying health conditions. The figure is the same as last week because some unrelated deaths have been removed and others added. (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).
• The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases. 

Planning assumptions

Last week, the government released a Planning Assumptions paper outlining possible scenarios for how the pandemic might develop in the UK. It says that if the current growth in cases is sustained, a substantial wave of cases with up to 30% of the population experiencing symptoms could peak in early September, although a smaller but earlier peak is also possible.

Alternatively, seasonal effects might substantially slow the epidemic in July and August – perhaps to the extent of leading to a decline in weekly cases in August, before resurgence in the autumn, for example when schools reopen. If so, the overall peak of the pandemic might be delayed to October or even later.

These forecasts and others in the report are based on a "reasonable worst case" value and should therefore not be taken as a prediction of how the pandemic will develop. Planning against the reasonable worst-case scenario will ensure, however, that plans are robust against all likely scenarios.

Mortality planning assumptions range from 3,100 deaths in the UK to 65,000 deaths in a reasonable worst case scenario.

 

Advice for pregnant women

Many newspapers reported last weekend that pregnant women are being given confusing advice on swine flu.

Pregnant women are one of the higher risk groups for swine flu, as they are for all influenza viruses. It is therefore important for them to take precautions.

This website provides full and up-to-date advice for pregnant women and parents of young children. The advice has not changed recently and  is available at the following links:

Swine flu advice for pregnant women
Swine flu pregnancy and parenting Q&A
Swine flu symptoms, including high-risk groups
Chief Medical Officer’s advice on pregnancy, holidays, and parents

 

How dangerous is swine flu?

The vast majority of cases reported so far in this country have been mild. Only a small number have led to serious illness, and these have frequently been where patients have had underlying health problems. 

There has been an argument put forward that the government should restrict antivirals to those groups who are most at risk of developing serious complications from swine flu. In other words, if people are otherwise healthy, then the NHS should let the virus run its course, treating it with paracetamol and bed rest as you would normal flu.